The new coronavirus is not an equal-opportunity killer:Being elderly and having other illnesses,for instance,greatly increases the risk of dying from the disease the virus causes,Covid-19.It's also possible being male could put you at increased risk.
新的冠状病毒对各类人群的致命效果并不相同：比如老年人和患有其他疾病会有更大风险。男性相较于女性也会面临更大的风险。
For both medical and public health reasons,researchers want to figure out who's most at risk of being infected and who's most at risk of developing severe or even lethal illness.With that kind of information,clinicians would know whom to treat more aggressively,government officials would have a better idea of steps to take,and everyone would know whether they need to take special,additional precautions.
出于医学和公共卫生方面的原因，研究人员希望找出谁最容易受到感染，以及谁最容易患上严重甚至致命的并发症。有了这些信息，临床医生将知道应该给谁更积极的治疗，政府官员该采取什么措施有更好的了解，每个人也清楚自己该做什么额外措施。
Here's what research has shown three months into the outbreak:
这是爆发三个月后的研究结果：
Old and young
老人与年轻人的比较
The vast majority of cases in China—87%—were in people ages 30 to 79,the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb.11.That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle,such as being in frequent contact with other people.Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others,at school and work and on public transit,yet they don't seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates:Only 8.1%of cases were 20-somethings,1.2%were teens,and 0.9%were 9 or younger.The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78%of the cases reported as of Feb.20 were in people ages 30 to 69.
中国疾病控制中心上个月根据截至2月11日被诊断出患有新冠肺炎的所有72,314名患者的数据，报告了中国绝大多数病例(87%)，年龄在30至79岁之间。与此相关的不只是生活方式，例如与他人经常接触。十几岁和20多岁的人在学校，工作场所和公共交通上也接触了很多其他人，但他们似乎并没有以很高的比率感染这种疾病：只有8.1%的病例是20多岁的年轻人，1.2%是十几岁，9岁以下的占0.9%。世界卫生组织驻中国代表团发现，截至2月20日，报告的病例中有78%的患者年龄在30至69岁之间。
The death toll skews old even more strongly.Overall,China CDC found,2.3%of confirmed cases died.But the fatality rate was 14.8%in people 80 or older,likely reflecting the presence of other diseases,a weaker immune system,or simply worse overall health.By contrast,the fatality rate was 1.3%in 50-somethings,0.4%in 40-somethings,and 0.2%in people 10 to 39.
死亡人数更严重地倾斜于老年人。总体而言，中国疾控中心发现，确诊病例中有2.3%死亡。但是，在80岁或80岁以上的人群中，死亡率为14.8%，这可能反映出存在其他疾病，免疫系统较弱或整体健康状况较差的原因。相比之下，死亡率在50岁以下人群中为1.3%，在40岁以上人群中为0.4%，在10至39岁的人群中为0.2%。
The age-related death risk probably reflects the strength,or weakness,of the respiratory system.About half of the 109 Covid-19 patients(ages 22 to 94)treated at Central Hospital of Wuhan,researchers there reported,developed acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS),in which fluid builds up in the small air sacs of the lungs.That restricts how much air the lungs can take in,reducing the oxygen supply to vital organs,sometimes fatally;half of the ARDS patients died,compared to 9%of patients who did not develop the syndrome.
与年龄有关的死亡风险可能反映了呼吸系统的强弱。在武汉市中心医院接受治疗的109名患者(22至94岁)中，约有一半发展为急性呼吸窘迫综合症(ARDS)，液体积聚在肺小气囊中。这就限制了肺吸收氧气，从而减少了对重要器官的供氧，有时甚至致命。一半的ARDS患者死亡，而没有发展为ARDS的患者占9%。
The ARDS patients had an average age of 61,compared to an average age of 49 for those who did not develop ARDS.Elderly patients“were more likely to develop ARDS,”the researchers wrote,suggesting how age can make Covid-19 more severe and even fatal:age increases the risk that the respiratory system will basically shut down under viral assault.
ARDS患者的平均年龄为61岁，而未患ARDS的患者的平均年龄为49岁。研究人员写道，老年患者“更有可能患ARDS，”这表明年龄如何使新冠肺炎更严重甚至致命：年龄增加了在病毒袭击下呼吸系统瘫痪的风险。
Youth,in contrast,seems to be protective.The WHO mission reported a relatively low incidence in people under 18,who made up only 2.4%of all reported cases.In fact,through mid-January,zero children in Wuhan,the epicenter of the outbreak,had contracted Covid-19.It's not clear whether that's because children do not show signs of illness even if infected.
相反，年轻人似乎是受到保护的。世卫组织访问团报告说，18岁以下人群的发病率相对较低，仅占所有报告病例的2.4%。实际上，到1月中旬为止，在武汉(暴发中心)没有儿童感染了Covid-19。尚不清楚这是否是因为儿童即使被感染也没有表现出疾病迹象。
Even cases among children and teens aged 10 to 19 are rare.As of Feb.11 there were 549 cases in that age group,1.2%of the total,China CDC found.Only one had died.
甚至10至19岁的儿童和青少年中的病例也很少见。中国疾病预防控制中心发现，截至2月11日，该年龄组有549例，占总数的1.2%。只有一个人死亡。
One intriguing explanation for the apparent resilience of youth:in regions near Hubei province,young children seem especially likely to be exposed to other coronaviruses,scientists in China reported in 2018.That might have given them at least partial immunity to this one.
据中国科学家在2018年报道：年轻人的抵抗力的一个有趣的解释是：在湖北省附近的地区，年幼的孩子似乎特别有可能暴露于其他冠状病毒。这可能使他们已经免疫了部分的冠状病毒。
Men and women
男性女性之间的比较
The effect of sex on susceptibility to Covid-19 is less clear than the age effect,but preliminary data suggest men might be more susceptible.China CDC found that 106 men had the disease for every 100 women,while the WHO mission found that men make up 51%of cases.A study of 1,099 Covid-19 patients in Wuhan through Jan.29 found a greater imbalance:58%were male,the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19 reported last week in the New England Journal of Medicine.
性别对Covid-19易感性的影响尚不及年龄影响明确，但初步数据表明，男性可能更易感。中国疾病预防控制中心发现，每100名女性就有对应106名男性患该病，而世界卫生组织的访问发现，男性占该病的51%。截至1月29日，对武汉地区1,099名Covid-19患者的研究发现了更大的失衡：58%是男性，来源于上周《新英格兰医学杂志》Covid-19中国医学治疗专家组。
It's possible the apparent sex imbalance reflects patterns of travel and contacts that make men more likely to be exposed to carriers of the virus,not any inherent biological differences.It's also possible the apparent worse disease severity in men could skew the data.Among hospitalized patients,there is“a slight predominance of men,”U.S.researchers wrote last week in JAMA.If the virus hits men harder than women,health care systems will see,test,and count more men.
这种明显的性别失衡可能反映了出行和接触的模式，这些模式使男性更容易接触到病毒携带者，而不是任何内在的生物学差异。男性明显的疾病严重程度也有可能扭曲数据。美国研究人员上周在《美国医学会杂志》(JAMA)上写道，在住院病人中，“男性略多于女性”。如果该病毒对男性的感染影响大于女性，那么卫生保健系统将对更多的男性进行观察、检测和统计。
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