Warmer Weather May Slow, but Not Halt Coronavirus
天气回暖能阻断新冠病毒传播吗?
Communities living in warmer places appear to have a comparative advantage to slow the transmission of coronavirus infections, according to an early analysis by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
麻省理工学院科学家的一项早期分析显示，位于更温暖地带的社区似乎在减缓新冠病毒疫情传播方面拥有一定的优势。
The researchers found that most coronavirus transmissions had occurred in regions with low temperatures, between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit (or 3 and 17 degrees Celsius).
研究人员发现，大多数冠状病毒传播发生在气温较低的地区，这些地方的气温约在3至17摄氏度之间。
While countries with equatorial climates and those in the Southern Hemisphere, currently in the middle of summer, have reported coronavirus cases, regions with average temperatures above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit (or 18 degrees Celsius) account for fewer than 6 percent of global cases so far.
尽管赤道气候带国家和正处于夏季的南半球国家也已通报了确诊病例的存在，但迄今为止，平均气温在18摄氏度以上地区的患者仅占全球病例数的不到百分之六。
“Wherever the temperatures were colder, the number of the cases started increasing quickly,” said Qasim Bukhari, a computational scientist at M.I.T. who is a co-author of the study. “You see this in Europe, even though the health care there is among the world’s best.”
“不管在哪，只要气温更冷，病例数量增加就会很快，”麻省理工学院的计算科学家、这项研究的共同作者卡西姆·布哈里(Qasim Bukhari)说。“你在欧洲也能看到这一点，即便那里的卫生保健系统属于世界前列。”
The temperature dependency is also clear within the United States, Dr. Bukhari said. Southern states, like Arizona, Florida and Texas, have seen slower outbreak growth compared with states like Washington, New York and Colorado. Coronavirus cases in California have grown at a rate that falls somewhere in between.
布哈里博士说，气温的依赖性在美国国内也很明显。与华盛顿、纽约和科罗拉多等州相比，亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州等南部各州的疫情扩散相对较为缓慢。加州的确诊病例增长速度则介于两者之间。
The seasonal pattern is similar to what epidemiologists have observed with other viruses. Dr. Deborah Birx, the global AIDS coordinator in the United States and also a member of the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, said during a recent briefing that the flu, in the Northern Hemisphere, generally follows a November to April trend.
这种季节性模式与流行病学家观察到的其它病毒具有相似性。美国的全球艾滋病协调员、也是特朗普政府冠状病毒工作组成员的黛博拉·比尔克斯(Deborah Birx)在最近的一次简报会上说，北半球的流感通常发生在11月到4月。
The four types of coronavirus that cause the commoncold every year also wane in warmer weather.
每年引起普通感冒的四种冠状病毒也会在更温暖的天气里变弱。
Dr. Birx also noted that the pattern was similar with the SARS epidemic in 2003. But she stressed that because the virus outbreaks in China and South Korea began later, it was difficult to determine whether the new coronavirus would take the same course.
比尔克斯博士还指出，这种模式与2003年SARS的流行非常相似。但她也强调，因为中国和韩国疫情暴发较晚，所以很难确定新冠病毒是否会往同样的方向发展。
At least two other studies published on public repositories have drawn similar conclusions for the coronavirus. One analysis by researchers in Spain and Finland found that the virus seemed to have found an iche in dry conditions and temperatures between 28.3 degrees and 49 degrees Fahrenheit (or minus 2 and 10 degrees Celsius). Another group found that before the Chinese government started imposing aggressive containment measures, cities with higher temperatures and more humid environments reported a slower rate of infection transmission early in the outbreak.
至少有另外两项公开发表的研究对冠状病毒得出了类似的结论。西班牙和芬兰研究人员进行的一项分析发现，这种病毒似乎在零下2至零上10摄氏度的干燥气温下较为适宜生存。另一个研究小组发现，在中国政府开始采取激进的控制措施之前，温度较高、环境较潮湿的城市在疫情暴发初期报告的疫情传播速度较慢。
But none of the studies have been peer-reviewed by other scientists, and Dr. Bukhari acknowledged that factors such as travel restrictions, social distancing measures, variations in the availability of tests and hospital burdens might have affected the number of cases in different countries.
但上述研究均未经过其他科学家的同行评议。布哈里博士承认，旅行限制、保持社交距离、检测能力的差异以及医院容载量等因素也可能给不同国家的病例数量带来影响。
The possible correlation between coronaviruses cases and climate should not lead policy makers and the public to complacency.
决策者和公众不应因病毒与天气之间可能存在的相关性而轻视此次疫情。
“We still need to take strong precautions,” Dr.Bukhari said. “Warmer temperatures may make this virus less effective, but less effective transmission does not mean that there is no transmission.”
“我们仍然需要采取强有力的预防措施，”布哈里博士说。“气温升高或许可以使这种病毒的传播效力减弱，但传播性降低并不意味着传播性为零。”
Warmer temperatures might make it harder for thecoronavirus to survive in the air or on surfaces for long periods of time, butit could still be contagious for hours, if not days, Dr. Bukhari said.
布哈里博士指出，气温升高可能会让冠状病毒更难在空气或物体表面长时间存活，但它仍有可能在数小时甚至数天内具备传染性。
Even seasonal viruses like influenza and the viruses that cause the common cold don’t completely disappear during summer. They are still present at low levels in many people’s bodies and in other parts of the world, biding their time until conditions are suitable for infections to spread again.
即便是像流感这类的季节性病毒和导致普通感冒的病毒，也不会在夏天完全消失。它们仍然以某种低水平在许多人的体内和世界上其他地方潜伏，等待时机，直到外部环境变得适于再次传播。
Some viruses have the opposite pattern. Polio and tuberculosis, for example, tend to spread faster in warmer climes. And some viruses may have no seasonal variation at all.
一些病毒拥有完全相反的模式。比如小儿麻痹症和肺结核病毒在气候温暖的地方传播速度更快。还有些病毒可能根本没有季节变化。
It will take another four to six weeks before health officials will have a clearer picture of how weather patterns shape the trajectory of the coronavirus, said Jarbas Barbosa, the assistant director at the Pan American Health Organization, the regional office of the World Health Organization that focuses on the Americas.
世界卫生组织下属的泛美卫生组织助理主任巴尔博萨(Jarbas Barbosa)说卫生官员仍然需要四到六周的时间来厘清天气将对冠状病毒的发展轨迹产生什么样的影响。
The fact that local transmission is happening across the global south signals that this virus may be more resilient to warmer temperatures than the flu and other respiratory viruses that spread acrossborders in the past. That is why W.H.O. officials still urge countries to act urgently and aggressively to try and contain the virus while case numbers arerelatively low and close contacts can easily be traced and quarantined.
当前南半球已经出现本土传播，这一事实意味着，比起过去跨国传播的流感和其他呼吸道病毒，这种病毒可能对较高温度更为耐受。这也是为什么世卫组织官员仍在敦促各国采取迫切和积极的行动，试图在确诊病例相对较少、密切接触者容易被追踪和隔离的情况下控制病毒。
“One of the big perils in assuming that the virusis less dangerous in warmer temperatures, among particular ages or for any specific group is complacency,” said Julio Frenk, a physician who served as health minister in Mexico and is now president of the University of Miami. “If people fail to heed the warnings and recommendations of public health professionals, the results will be disastrous.”
“假定病毒在较高的温度下、在特定的年龄层或任何特定群体中危险性较低，这种预设带来的最大危险之一就是自满，”曾任墨西哥卫生部长、现任迈阿密大学校长的内科医生胡里奥·弗兰克(Julio Frenk)说。“如果人们不注意公共卫生专业人士的警告和建议，后果将是灾难性的。”
But because high humidity and heat only align perfectly during mainly July and August in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, Dr. Bukhari cautioned that the effects of warmer weather on reducing transmissions might only last for a brief period in some regions.
但因高湿度和高气温一般只会在7月和8月在北半球的某些地区同时出现，布哈里博士警告，因此气温回暖对降低传播性的影响可能只会在部分地区持续一小段时间。
“This suggests that even if the spread of the coronavirus decreases at higher humidity, its effect would be limited for regions above 40 degrees North, which includes most of the Europe and North America,” he said.
“这还意味着，即便冠状病毒的传播性在高湿度的环境下有所降低，它的影响也会局限在北纬40度以南，而欧洲和北美的大部分地区都不在这个范围内。”他说。
And because so much is unknown, no one can predict whether the virus will return with such ferocity in the fall.
而鉴于目前仍有太多未知，没人可以预言这种病毒是否会在秋天气势汹汹地卷土重来。
