China’s mainland markets will score another major achievement this year by overtaking Hong Kong in terms of raising capital. Analysts forecast that Shanghai and Shenzhen will raise RMB 200 bn this year compared with RMB l50 bn for Hong Kong.
So， does this mean that Shanghai is obtaining its long sought-for position as the premier Chinese capital market? Not so fast, say market watchers.
For a start, the Shanghai market faces a series of problems. After a rebound over the past 12 months, the mainland stock market is starting to look expensive to some analysts. China Life’s Shanghai-listed shares are trading at a price almost 50 percent higher than its Hong Kong shares, which fell yesterday.
Although mainland investment funds passed the $100 bn mark last year and there is a vast base of retail bank deposits that could theoretically be shifted into equities, there are still doubts about the ability of the market to absorb all the new planned issues, especially if a sharp regulation dulls some of the present enthusiasm.
Moreover, while the mainland stock market has progressed rapidly, most of the other capital markets remain thin.
The corporate bond market is still in its infancy, held back by uncertainty over bankruptcy procedures and government controls over interest rates. Also, the state has yet to open a much advertised financial futures exchange in Shanghai.
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