Part 1 English to Chinese Interpreting
Ladies and gentlemen, there are more than 95% of the Asian countries that are middle income countries, compared to less than 10% 20 years ago. Such dramatic change is due to the rapid economic growth of China, India, Indonesia and other Asian countries. Now the challenge that is faced by all the Asian countries largely in the middle income region is how to transition into high income economies. Many developing countries’ experience for the past 50 years has shown that, such transition is not easy. Brazil and Columbus has been at the middle income level for decades, but still not yet breakthrough. At the same time, Singapore has transitioned from the middle income level to high income level with only 25 years has also shown that this can be done.
Investment in infrastructure is key to countries to follow through this transition. However, countries have to step up their efforts in productivity promotion, meaning that it’s half to make sure the good use of input instead of only focusing the amount of input. For the past 10 years productivity growth accounted for 30% of economic growth. Innovation is what needs to be promoted together with high-quality infrastructure as well as human capital. Innovation is getting more and more important as a country develops its economy. It helps with creating new products and more values in products, in turn will even further economic development and increase wage level.
Higher quality of human capital means more scaled and more knowledgeable work force, which is the foundation of any economy. Enhancing the quality of human capital is going to boost growth and equity. A recent study has shown that 20% increase in human capital investment will lead to 3% of productivity growth and narrowing the income gap by 4%. Workers in middle income countries have an average of six years of schooling. That is why countries need to close such gap compared to 10 years of average schooling in high income countries. Quality of education is even more crucial. In math and science subjects 15 year old students in high income countries are doing much better than those in middle income countries. Students with strong abilities in reading writing and problem-solving are more likely to become the future innovators. Sorry also shows a direct relation between investments made in education and growth in GDP.
Different countries prioritize different infrastructure. Low income countries often need to meet the basic needs such as water supply public health and transportation. Once countries develop even further they won’t need to focus on electricity and IT infrastructure. IT is a key driver to innovation because it helps create and spread knowledge. Middle income countries with more Internet users are more innovative than those without the internet. Increasing investment in IT is going to boost innovation and productivity.
To encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, countries have to step up efforts in intellectual property protection as well as the rule of law, increased financing and created equal policies to boost competition. According to estimation, about US$26 trillion will be spent from 2016 to 2030 on infrastructure investment, in order to lower the impact of climate change. To meet this need, Asian countries need to carry out tax reform, change their economic structure and borrow prudently. But they tend to face a founding shortage anyway. That is why Asian countries have to attract more private investment and build a better investment environment - working with private investors and offer a higher return. To conclude, I believe Asian countries have come so far so quickly, The promotion of human capital to achieve sustained growth can be done. That is going to be the natural next step for us.
Today I would like to talk about technology and where technology is going. The major trend for technology is that it is getting smarter and smarter, which I call artificial intelligence, AI. The use of AI includes robots that are going to undertake a lot of the tasks that human used to do. It is going to redefine jobs and create more tasks that we had no idea exist. This is going to bring drastic changes to society for the next 20 years.
Of course we already have AI right now and they are working at the back offices. AIs have eyes in the hospital diagnosing X-rays better than human doctors. AIs have eyes at the back offices of law firms processing legal evidence better than human lawyers. For pilots they only work for 7 to 8 minutes when flying a plane because AI is doing the rest of the work. We also have Amazon and Alibaba that provide smart recommendations with AIs at the back offices. AlphaGo also defeated the world’s Go champion. When we play video games we are playing against AIs. Now what Google is doing is trying to teach AIs how to play video games. And with such learning mechanisms, AI was getting smarter and smarter.
There are two aspects that is not truly appreciated by humans. The first is that humans do not really understand the concept of intelligence. Humans tend to have the single dimensional understanding, thinking that IQ is the only way of showing intelligence. For example a rat is the least smart, a monkey is better. Then an average person such as me as smarter than a monkey but not smarter than a genius. Such understanding of intelligence is completely wrong. Human intelligence is like a symphony, in fact, it’s like different instruments playing together.
Secondly, AI was the technology leading the second industrial revolution. First industrial revolution relied on artificial force. Before the agricultural revolution, all work was done by human muscle or animal force. It is extremely important that during the first agriculture revolution we utilized steam and fossil fuels to power productivity. That is why when we drive a car today it is using the force of 2500 horses, that is, 2500 horse power. Artificial force is what helps us to build sky scrapers and produce massive products in factories that cannot be done by humans.
Artificial forces can also go through wires and grid, Connecting homes, factories, and farmlands, that is offered to everyone to buy. And the smartness of artificial intelligence is multiplied by 1 million times powers the Second Industrial Revolution. That is why the cars on the highway with 2500 horsepower is going to be automated in the future. And AI will be developed, just as electricity to the grid, on the cloud.
Part 2 Chinese to English Interpreting