非洲：寻求普惠增长之路（节选）
The Pursuit of Inclusive Growth in Africa
国际货币基金组织副总裁 张涛
Zhang Tao, IMF Deputy Managing Director
金砖国家峰会
BRICS Summit
2018年7月24日，南非
South Africa, July 24, 2018
一、全球背景——经济复苏变得更加不均衡
I. Global context – recovery becoming more uneven
首先谈谈全球前景。我们最近发布了世界经济增长预测。
Let me start with the global outlook. We recently released our growth forecasts for the world economy.
2018年和2019年的全球增长率预计为3.9%，与我们今年4月的预测一致。但经济扩张的均衡程度下降，一些主要发达经济体的增长率似乎已经达到峰值。
Global growth is projected at 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, in line with our April forecasts. But the expansion is becoming less even, and its rate appears to have peaked in some major advanced economies.
美国经济继续快速增长，今年的增长率预计将达到2.9%，2019年为2.7%。然而，欧元区、日本和英国的增长势头弱于我们六个月前的预测。
In the United States, growth continues apace at 2.9 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2019. However, momentum in the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom is weaker than we anticipated six months ago.
新兴和发展中经济体的增长预计将保持强劲，今年的增长率预计为4.9%，2019年为5.1%。
Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to remain strong at 4.9 percent this year and 5.1 percent in 2019.
非洲地区也将继续保持强劲的增长势头。撒哈拉以南非洲的总体增长率预计今年为3.4%，明年将升至3.8%。在许多国家，随着经济增长率超过人口增长率，人均收入将有所提高。
Sustained momentum is expected to be seen in this region as well. Overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 3.4 percent this year, rising to 3.8 percent next year. With growth rates exceeding those of population, many countries should see increases in per capita incomes.
然而，即使在充满活力的新兴经济体中，增长前景也变得更加不均衡。石油价格上涨，贸易紧张局势升级，美国市场收益率提高，新兴市场货币承受市场压力，这些因素都将对经济前景带来挑战。土耳其或阿根廷最近的情况就说明了这一点。
Yet even among this dynamic group of emerging economies, growth prospects are becoming more uneven. Rising oil prices, escalating trade tensions, higher yields in the United States, and market pressures on emerging markets’ currencies are challenging the outlook. Think of the recent experience of Turkey or Argentina.
这些挑战很可能持续存在，因此我们认为，经济前景面临下行压力，即使在短期内也是如此。贸易紧张局势的加剧可能导致全球复苏进程脱轨，并进一步抑制中期增长。
These challenges are likely to persist, and this is why we see rising downside risks to the outlook even in the near term. An escalation in trade tensions can derail the global recovery and further depress medium-term growth.
与此同时，金融市场条件仍然宽松，风险溢价依然偏小，一些市场资产价格持续高位运行，同时波动性低。但是，这些情况可能会突然改变。债务较高的国家尤其可能受到全球融资条件收紧的影响。
At the same time, financial conditions remain accommodative. Spreads are still compressed, valuations in some markets stretched, and volatility low. However, these conditions can change suddenly. Countries with higher debt could be especially affected by tightening in global financing conditions.
显然，对撒哈拉以南非洲地区而言，全球背景带来了挑战性。因此，非洲国家更加迫切需要采取有关政策，巩固最近取得的进展，并为所有人民创造机会。
Clearly, the global backdrop is challenging for the sub-Saharan Africa region. This provides more urgency for policies to lock in recent achievements and provide opportunity to all its citizens.
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