2016年12月大学英语六级听力在线练习(7)_第2页

　　Democrats' electoral advantage

　　Since the 1992 election won by Bill Clinton, Democrats have been able to count on winning 18 states plus the District of Columbia, with a combined total of 242 electoral votes. Remember, it takes 270 out of the 538 electoral votes to win the presidency.

　　Republicans, on the other hand, have been able to count on 13 mostly smaller states with a combined electoral vote total of just 102. The remainder are the so-called “battleground” states where the election outcome is usually decided.

　　Clinton’s battleground edge

　　This year, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats appear to have a decided advantage with Clinton leading in key states like Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia and battling Trump in close races in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

　　This year’s Electoral map has put Trump at a disadvantage, said American University analyst Austin Hart. “He’s got to win voters in Florida, Ohio, perhaps Colorado and Nevada. He’s got to shore up things in Pennsylvania if he can. So he has a heavy load in front of him.”

　　Most of the scenarios that would project a Trump victory involve him winning most of the swing states up for grabs including Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and even Pennsylvania, which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

　　Declining white vote

　　Changing demographics also loom as a growing challenge for Republicans. White voters are likely to make up about 70 percent of all voters in this year’s election, as the country continues to diversify. In 1980, whites made up 88 percent of the electorate. The Cook Political Report also notes that in 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won in a landslide. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney improved on that number. He won 59 percent of white voters, but lost to President Barack Obama by four points overall.

　　Republican strategist John Feehery sees the two parties headed in different directions. “It is a liberal, progressive party of coalitions, ethnic coalitions. And the Republican Party is a coalition of basically white voters of various stripes of conservatism.”

　　Targeting undecideds

　　In the final days of the campaign, the candidates will target a relatively small group of voters in a handful of states where the election hangs in the balance. “The question is now that sliver of independents,” said American University analyst Jennifer Lawless. “But it’s not only the sliver of independents. It’s smaller than that. It’s the sliver of independents who live in battleground states. So we are talking about a very, very small percentage of the population.”

　　Americans are now making a final decision between two flawed candidates in one of the most divisive elections in U.S. history, and the focus remains on a handful of states that will likely determine the outcome.