2020商务英语中级写作范文：经济

　　China's stimulus

　　Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃?

　　China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work

　　中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效

　　“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?

　　中国有句民谚：“众人拾柴火焰高。”随着世界经济陷入70年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动。中国是其中的吝啬鬼吗?它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占GDP的3%。难道去年十一月公布的4亿元用于基础设施建设的措施——相当于GDP的14%——仅仅是在忽悠?

　　Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.

　　北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以适应经济圈的冲击。

　　In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.

　　然而在中国，经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案，因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金、国有公司或地方政府实施的。瑞银的陶旺(音)预计，新的基础设施建设、减税、消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出，整个刺激方案将占到GDP的4%。

　　Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand.

　　中国在铁路、公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开。今年头两个月内，固定投资总额较去年同期增长30%，铁路投资增长了3倍。很多批评认为，中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费，但就短期来看，在中国这是提高国内需求最立竿见影的方式。

　　What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.

　　那么作为提高国内消费另一手段的货币政策又运用的怎样?从去年年初开始，中国已经将利率砍到美联储的一半。新的统计数字显示，到二月，消费品价格较去年下降了1.6%，从而带来了第一轮通货紧缩。这似乎意味着中国在提高需求方面做的尚且不够。但其实，这并不是真正的通货紧缩。真正的通缩情况下，货币供应和信贷会随着物价下降而萎缩。去年，银行借贷增长了24%。对银根放松的正确估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借贷产生。中国作为世界上少有的几个国家，其借贷规模在全球信贷危机爆发后不降反升——尽管部分借贷是在国家指导下进行的。

　　China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.

　　中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划，还通过让人民币在过去12个月内升值18%(贸易加权考虑在内)，部分促进了世界货币经济增长。

　　The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.

　　真正的问题是：中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大?到今年二月，年出口额下降远超预期，达26%，并且可能继续下挫。工业生产12个月增幅在09年头两个月已将至3.8%，零售业增长放缓至15%。但是仍然有一些国内需求复苏的暂时性指标。除了投资和银行贷款增长外，汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振。野村证券的孙明春(音)认为，经济刺激方案能够实现8%的年度经济增长。但是政府已经明确表示，如果经济持续疲软，将会提供另外的财政提振方案。

　　Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out.

　　这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持续悲观，增速便难以维持。对于中国而言，出口转内销的需要已经更加紧迫。中国官员正确地表示，将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款，使得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺。否则，即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭。

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