金融时报精读之欧洲央行宣布无限期维持宽松政策

　　The European Central Bank declared that it would maintain an easy monetary policy stance “as long as needed” while the eurozone battles record unemployment and shrinking economic activity.

　　欧元区正与创纪录的失业率和经济萎缩抗争，欧洲央行(ECB)宣布将维持宽松货币政策，“延续时间视需要而定”。

　　“Our monetary policy will remain accommodative as long as needed,” Mario Draghi, ECB president, said during his monthly press conference.

　　欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在每月一次的新闻发布会上表示：“我们将维持宽松货币政策，延续时间视需要而定。”

　　Barclays analysts said in a note: “This commitment to an ‘open-ended’ policy is something new, showing the ECB’s desire to see market rates remain close to zero despite the ongoing improvement in financial markets’ confidence towards the euro area.”

　　巴克莱(Barclays)在一份研究报告中表示：“欧洲央行承诺实施一项‘无明确终止时间的’政策是一件新事物，这表明，尽管眼下金融市场对欧元区的信心正在回升，该行仍希望看到市场利率处于接近于零的水平。”

　　The Federal Reserve has said interest rates will remain near zero until US unemployment falls to at least 6.5 per cent. While Mr Draghi described high unemployment as a “tragedy”, the ECB has no mandate to target joblessness.

　　美联储(Fed)曾表示，联邦基金利率将维持在接近于零的水平，直到失业率至少下降到6.5%时为止。尽管德拉吉将高失业率称为一场“悲剧”，但欧洲央行无权设定失业率目标。

　　Mr Draghi has consistently struck a gently upbeat tone on the eurozone’s prospects, despite being careful to say repeatedly that the risks to the outlook “remain on the downside”.“The recovery path is by and large unchanged,” he said. “Later in 2013 economic activity should gradually recover, supported by a strengthening of global demand.”

　　德拉吉一直在发表对欧元区的谨慎乐观看法，不过他小心地重申，欧元区“仍未摆脱下滑风险”。他表示：“在全球需求扩大的支撑下，2013年下半年欧元区经济应会逐渐复苏。”

　　However, the bank’s own staff projections paint a gloomy picture. The quarterly forecasts for growth were revised down again. They now predict a contraction of 0.5 per cent this year, from a fall of 0.3 per cent previously. More alarmingly for a central bank whose sole policy target is price stability, the ECB is now forecasting inflation to slow to 1.6 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year, short of its “close to, but below” 2 per cent medium-term target.

　　然而，欧洲央行内部人员并不看好欧元区前景，季度增长预期再度向下调整。他们预测，今年欧元区经济将收缩0.5%，先前预测的收缩幅度为0.3%。对于唯一政策目标在于稳定物价的欧洲央行来说，更令人担忧的是，该行预测欧元区今年通胀率将降至1.6%，明年为1.3%，低于“接近但低于”2%的中期通胀目标。

　　“The get-out-of-jail card for the ECB with these forecasts has been to suggest that they are merely an input for their discussions, so they can go on to ignore them,” Ken Wattret, economist at BNP Paribas, said. “But it is stretching credibility for a central bank with one mandate to ignore its own current inflation projections.”

　　法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)经济学家肯•瓦特瑞特(Ken Wattret)表示：“做出上述预测的欧洲央行向来有一张‘出狱卡’，那就是声明预测数据仅供讨论之用，因此可以继续不予理会。但是，如果一家唯一政策目标是稳定物价的央行不重视自家目前的通胀率预期，它的信誉不免受损。”