金融时报精读之中国成No1大米进口国

　　According to an ancient Chinese proverb, “without rice, even the cleverest housewife cannot cook”.

　　中国有句老话：“巧妇难为无米之炊。”

　　Today, housewives around China are unlikely to run short of the grain. The country, which has ample domestic supplies on the back of near record production levels, is this year set to become the largest rice importer for the first time, overtaking Nigeria.

　　如今，中国的家庭主妇不太可能面临“无米”的窘境。国内大米收成接近纪录水平、供应充足的中国，今年将首次超过尼日利亚，成为世界上最大的大米进口国。

　　Historically, China has been the world’s largest producer and consumer of rice. Apart from years where bad weather led to crop shortages, it has been a net exporter, shipping surplus output to Asia and Africa. In 1998, China was the fourth-largest exporter, accounting for 14 per cent of the global market, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

　　历史上，中国一直是世界上最大的水稻生产国和消费国。除了个别年份因恶劣天气导致农作物歉收外，中国始终是水稻净出口国，多余的水稻被运往亚洲和非洲。根据美国农业部 (Department of Agriculture)的数据，1998年，中国是世界第四大的大米出口国，出口量占全球市场的14%。

　　In the past three years, however, it has become a net importer of rice, actively buying supplies from countries including Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar.

　　然而过去三年里，中国变成了大米净进口国，积极从越南、巴基斯坦和缅甸等国进口水稻。

　　The main driver behind the import rise has been Chinese mills turning to cheap overseas rice at a time when Beijing’s price support for the grain has led to high prices. Ma Wenfeng, crop analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness, says: “Since the cost for enterprises to purchase domestic rice is far higher than the cost to import rice, they prefer to import.”

　　进口量增长的背后，一个主要推动因素是中国政府对粮食价格的支持导致粮食价格居高不下，促使中国的粮食加工厂采用廉价的外国大米。北京东方艾格农业咨询有限公司(Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants)农作物分析师马文峰表示：“对企业来说，收购国内大米的成本远高于进口大米的成本，因此他们宁愿进口大米。”

　　In order to incentivise agricultural production, China has provided farmers with subsidies as well as putting in place a minimum procurement price for certain grains in order to reduce volatility in the domestic rice market. However, this has meant that domestic prices for certain agricultural products has “decoupled” from the international market.

　　为鼓励农业生产，中国一方面向农民提供补贴，一方面为特定的粮食作物设定了最低收购价，以减少国内大米市场的波动。然而，这意味着某些农产品的国内价格与国际市场“脱钩”。

　　Beijing’s minimum procurement price for domestic long grain rice is set at $420 per tonne, but spot prices are at about $600 per tonne, some 50 per cent higher than the Vietnamese rice benchmark.

　　中国政府为国内的长粒大米设定的最低收购价是每吨420美元，而这种大米的现货价格达到了每吨大约600美元，这比越南的大米基准价格高了大约50%。

　　In 2012, China imported 2.9m tonnes of rice compared with Nigeria’s 3.4m, and is expected to purchase 3m from overseas markets this year, overtaking the African country’s imports of 2.4m.

　　2012年，中国进口了290万吨大米，相比之下尼日利亚的大米进口量为340万吨。今年中国预计将从国外市场进口300万吨大米，将超过尼日利亚240万吨的进口量。

　　“China’s rice imports are largely a policy-driven phenomenon,” says Fred Gale, senior economist at USDA. “The Chinese government has used price support policies to ensure rice prices don’t fall to maintain profit margins for farmers.”

　　美国农业部高级经济师弗雷德-盖尔(Fred Gale)表示：“中国大米进口在很大程度上是一种政策驱动现象。为了维持农民的利润率，中国政府动用了价格支撑政策，以确保水稻的价格不会下跌。”

　　The country’s growing prominence in the world rice market would be worrying rice traders were it not for the recent rise in global output, including the bumper crop expected this year. Global rice production is forecast to total a record 479m tonnes for the 2013/14 crop year, thanks partly to government subsidies in leading exporting countries, including India and Thailand, according to the USDA.

　　假如近年来全球水稻产量没有增长，中国在世界水稻市场上不断增加的重要性可能会令水稻交易商担心。今年，全球农作物预计会出现大丰收。根据美国农业部的数据，2013-14农事年的全球大米总产量预计将达到创纪录的4.79亿吨，这部分是由于印度和泰国等大米出口大国政府的补贴政策。

　　Thailand’s official rice stockpile of 17m-18m, designed to boost farmers’ incomes, represents almost half of the world’s rice trade and is also adding to the bearishness surrounding rice prices. With the new Thai crop set to be harvested in October, Bangkok needs to dispose of its existing inventory to raise money for the new purchases and prospects of sales have weighed on rice prices.

　　为增加泰国农民收入，泰国官方将大米储备量定在1700万到1800万吨，接近世界大米贸易量的一半，这增加了水稻价格的下行压力。由于泰国将在10月份迎来新的收割季节，泰国政府将需要处置现有库存，为新一轮收购筹集资金，由此产生的销售预期将对大米价格造成压力。

　　Amid the bearish environment, “the few bright spots in the market include China’s growing rice imports,” says Samarendu Mohanty at the International Rice Research Institute.

　　考虑到低迷的市场环境，国际水稻研究所(International Rice Research Institute)的萨玛兰度-穆罕迪(Samarendu Mohanty)表示：“中国大米进口不断增长是市场中的少数亮点之一。”

　　Another reason cited by some analysts for the rise in rice imports is the recent cadmium contamination scare. Concerns about soil pollution affecting the grain from Hunan and Guangdong may have added further impetus to the buying from overseas markets, they say.

　　部分分析人士指出，大米进口增长的另一个原因是最近的镉污染恐慌情绪。他们表示，由于担心湖南和广东省的粮食受到土壤污染影响，这进一步促使人们从海外市场进口粮食。

　　The main question troubling traders is whether China will remain a rice importer, as it does with other cereals, or go back to its limited role in the international arena, focusing on domestic production. The country is the world’s largest soyabean importer, and its overseas corn purchases are also growing. Heavy rains in some growing regions means that China will become the second-largest wheat importer after Egypt this crop year.

　　一个困扰交易商的主要问题是，中国作为水稻进口国的状况是会像其他谷物那样持续下去，抑或中国会重返其在国际舞台上的有限角色，而主要依靠国内生产。中国是世界上最大的大豆进口国，而中国从国外进口的玉米也在逐年增长。而在这个农事年，部分小麦产区的强降雨意味着，中国将成为继埃及之后的第二大小麦进口国。

　　Mr Mohanty says that due to the country’s growing food demand, unless Beijing tries to stop overseas imports with trade barriers, “it is reasonable to assume that Chinese imports will continue in the near to medium term”.

　　穆罕迪表示，由于中国的食品需求不断增长，“那种认为中国在近期至中期将继续进口大米的想法是合理的”——除非中国政府试图通过贸易壁垒阻止进口。

　　However, in the face of rising agricultural imports, worries about self-sufficiency and food security have started to surface in China, with articles in the domestic press about the lack of competitiveness of the country’s agricultural sector. In another sign that officials are on alert, a Ministry of Agriculture report at the start of the year pointed to the “upside down” price phenomenon, noting the growing difference between international and domestic food commodity prices.

　　然而，面对着不断增长的农产品进口量，中国开始出现粮食自给和粮食安全方面的担忧，中国国内媒体上出现了关于中国农业部门缺乏竞争力的文章。还有一件事表明中国官方对此产生了警觉：今年年初，农业部一份报告指出了农产品价格“倒挂”现象，即国际和国内食品类大宗商品的价格差距在不断扩大。

　　Although China has tariff rate quotas for rice imports, there have been large amounts of the grain smuggled through the borders say analysts. Ultimately, it will be international prices that will determine the level of China’s rice imports. “The future flow of rice depends on whether supplier countries continue to have lower prices than China’s,” says Mr Gale.

　　分析人士表示，虽然中国对大米进口实行关税税率配额制度，但是实际上存在大量粮食走私。最终决定中国大米进口量的将是国际大米价格。盖尔表示：“未来大米进口量取决于出口国的价格是否会继续低于中国国内价格。”