商务实战：京东商城能否一鸣惊人

商务实战：京东商城能否一鸣惊人

京东商城能否一鸣惊人？

When Warren Buffett spends $12bn on Heinz, a $125m stake by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal in Chinese online retailer 360 Buy looks trivial. But it is a sign that while the most famous value investor is plumping for quality, if not value exactly, his rival is still backing shoot-for-the-stars propositions. And they don’t get much starrier, or riskier, than China’s cut-throat retail world.

Based on sheer size, ecommerce in the world’s second-largest economy has enormous potential. Only about two-fifths of China’s population is online, half the proportion of the US or South Korea. At 200m, there are already 25 per cent more online shoppers in China than the US, yet this still only constitutes a third of all Chinese netizens. Three quarters of web-savvy Americans are regular online spenders. China has far fewer retailers who can call themselves national too, so the web offers huge brand value potential to the outfit that can make it big online.

The trick is profiting from this market. Prince Alwaleed’s target, 360 Buy, is the second-largest online retailer, accounting for about a sixth of transaction value. Its sales have been rising at a compound 150 per cent. But so has the online market overall, according to Macquarie, suggesting little share gain in spite of extreme, and expensive, price war stunts that have hurt everyone. Gome, which competes in electronics, recently said its online unit was one factor in its first full-year loss last year. Macquarie expects market growth to slow to about 50 per cent by 2015. Most businesses would die for that, but there are as yet no signs of profits at 360 Buy as it builds a delivery network.

Prince Alwaleed’s stake is part of a $400m injection for 360 Buy. Forget that last year the company said it was fully funded until 2015. Kingdom Holdings, the prince’s vehicle, says it invests in groups that seek to list in three years. That could be optimistic.